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Policy Brief

The View from Washington: Iran Tilts the Strategic Balance Toward China

The Iran war has weakened Donald Trump’s negotiating leverage significantly vis-à-vis China, by diminishing his political standing at home, weakening US military posture in the Asia-Pacific region, depleting stocks of key munitions, and raising questions about the reliability of the United States as a political and security partner. In the weeks since the visit (first scheduled for late March) was delayed, Beijing has skillfully exploited these vulnerabilities, leaving President Xi in a much-strengthened position.

11-minute read
13 May 2026

President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at a press conference on 9 March 2026 in the White House in Washinton DC (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok).
President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at a press conference on 9 March 2026 in the White House in Washinton DC (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok).
11-minute read
In mid-February, when Donald Trump first announced that he would visit Beijing in late March, he was anticipating a diplomatic triumph. Buoyed by a quick military success in Venezuela (and anticipating an even more decisive victory in Iran), he hoped to impress his host with a practical demonstration of America’s unparalleled military might. Firmly in control of US trade policy, he planned to use the threat of new tariffs to secure continued access to Chinese critical minerals and promote sales of US aircraft and agricultural products. Above all, he wanted to send a message that he is the senior partner in the world’s most important bilateral relationship.

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