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Commentary

Strategic Vulnerability: Assessing the Relationship between Iran and the Arab Gulf States

For decades, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) built the security and economic foundation of the nations on a strategic bargain with the West that provided them with security and economic prosperity. The current conflict has shaken the understandings undergirding that project and set GCC countries on divergent directions on what to do next. Ultimately, their relationship with Iran and the US will be crucial for how they move forward, but they may not have full control over how these relationships develop.

8-minute read
17 August 2026

By Ali Ahmadi
Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Hub hit by Iranian missiles, March 2026
Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Hub hit by Iranian missiles, March 2026
8-minute read
The Iran war has fundamentally upended relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states, as well as the security and economic situation in the Persian Gulf region. For four decades, the countries that had formed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981 operated according to an implicit bargain that made them platforms for Western power projection in exchange for what they assumed to guarantee them near-total security. That arrangement transformed small states into global centers of finance, energy, trade and investment.

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